{"id":12459,"date":"2020-03-28T10:41:39","date_gmt":"2020-03-28T08:41:39","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/?p=12459"},"modified":"2020-03-30T13:09:29","modified_gmt":"2020-03-30T10:09:29","slug":"ta-mathimatika-tis-pandimias","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/el\/2020\/03\/28\/ta-mathimatika-tis-pandimias\/","title":{"rendered":"\u03a4\u03b1 \u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03c0\u03b1\u03bd\u03b4\u03b7\u03bc\u03af\u03b1\u03c2"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"attachment_12469\" style=\"width: 610px\" class=\"wp-caption aligncenter\"><a href=\"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-scaled.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-12469\" class=\"wp-image-12469\" src=\"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-1024x683.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"600\" height=\"400\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-1024x683.jpg 1024w, https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-300x200.jpg 300w, https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/martin-sanchez-B1bu7r41HuU-unsplash-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 600px) 100vw, 600px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-12469\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Photo by Martin Sanchez on Unsplash<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u03a4\u03bf <strong>\u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf SIR<\/strong> \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03bb\u03bf\u03cd\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b1 \u03b5\u03c1\u03bc\u03b7\u03bd\u03b5\u03af\u03b1\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03c1\u03cc\u03b2\u03bb\u03b5\u03c8\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03b4\u03b7\u03bc\u03b9\u03ce\u03bd \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03bf\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03ba\u03cd\u03c0\u03c4\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03b1\u03c5\u03c4\u03ae \u03c4\u03b7 \u03b2\u03b1\u03c3\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03bc\u03bf\u03c1\u03c6\u03ae. \u0391\u03c5\u03c4\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 <strong>\u03b9\u03ba\u03b1\u03bd\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03b7\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b5\u03c6\u03b1\u03c1\u03bc\u03cc\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03bf \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c3\u03b8\u03ad\u03bd\u03b5\u03b9\u03b5\u03c2<\/strong> \u03bf\u03b9 \u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03af\u03b5\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03b4\u03af\u03b4\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03ac\u03bd\u03b8\u03c1\u03c9\u03c0\u03bf \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03ac\u03bd\u03b8\u03c1\u03c9\u03c0\u03bf \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03cc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b7 \u03b1\u03bd\u03ac\u03c1\u03c1\u03c9\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03cb\u03c0\u03bf\u03b8\u03ad\u03c4\u03b5\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c1\u03ba\u03ae \u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03af\u03c3\u03c4\u03b1\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03bf\u03c1\u03b3\u03b1\u03bd\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03bf\u03cd, \u03cc\u03c0\u03c9\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03c2 \u03bc\u03ad\u03c1\u03b5\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b1\u03c2 \u03bf \u03b9\u03cc\u03c2 Covid-19.<\/p>\n<div id=\"attachment_7919\" style=\"width: 140px\" class=\"wp-caption alignright\"><a href=\"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/stamos.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-7919\" class=\"wp-image-7919\" src=\"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/stamos-150x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"130\" height=\"174\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/stamos-224x300.jpg 224w, https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/stamos.jpg 531w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 130px) 100vw, 130px\" \/><\/a><p id=\"caption-attachment-7919\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u03a3\u03c4\u03ac\u03bc\u03bf\u03c2 \u03a4\u03c3\u03b9\u03c4\u03c3\u03ce\u03bd\u03b7\u03c2 &#8211; \u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc\u03c2, \u03c3\u03c5\u03b3\u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03c6\u03ad\u03b1\u03c2<\/p><\/div>\n<p>\u0388\u03bd\u03b1 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03b4\u03b7\u03bc\u03b9\u03bf\u03bb\u03bf\u03b3\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf (\u0395\u039c) \u03b5\u03be\u03b5\u03c4\u03ac\u03b6\u03b5\u03b9 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03be\u03b9\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03b5\u03af \u03bc\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b5\u03bb\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03af\u03b7\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03c1\u03cc\u03bb\u03bf \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b4\u03c1\u03b1\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03af\u03b6\u03b5\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03bf \u03ac\u03c4\u03bf\u03bc\u03bf \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b1\u03bd\u03ae\u03ba\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c3\u03b5 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03c3\u03cd\u03bd\u03bf\u03bb\u03bf, \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03b2\u03bb\u03b5\u03c6\u03b8\u03b5\u03af \u03b7 \u03c3\u03c5\u03bc\u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03c6\u03bf\u03c1\u03ac \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03be\u03ac\u03c0\u03bb\u03c9\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03bd\u03cc\u03c2 \u03b9\u03bf\u03cd \u03bc\u03ad\u03c3\u03c9 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c0\u03bb\u03b7\u03b8\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03bf\u03cd.<\/p>\n<p>\u0395\u03c0\u03b5\u03b9\u03b4\u03ae \u03bf \u03b1\u03c3\u03c6\u03b1\u03bb\u03ad\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c4\u03c1\u03cc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c2 \u03b8\u03b1 \u03ae\u03c4\u03b1\u03bd \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c0\u03b5\u03b9\u03c1\u03b1\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b4\u03b9\u03ba\u03b1\u03c3\u03af\u03b1 \u03c0\u03ac\u03bd\u03c9 \u03c3\u03b5 \u03b1\u03bd\u03b8\u03c1\u03ce\u03c0\u03b9\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bb\u03b7\u03b8\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03bf\u03cd\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ba\u03ac\u03c4\u03b9 \u03c4\u03ad\u03c4\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf (\u03c3\u03c4\u03b1 \u03ba\u03c1\u03ac\u03c4\u03b7 \u03b4\u03b9\u03ba\u03b1\u03af\u03bf\u03c5. . .) \u03b5\u03ba\u03c4\u03cc\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03b1\u03b4\u03cd\u03bd\u03b1\u03c4\u03bf \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03bd\u03ae\u03b8\u03b9\u03ba\u03bf, \u03bf\u03b9 \u03c0\u03bb\u03b7\u03c1\u03bf\u03c6\u03bf\u03c1\u03af\u03b5\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b1\u03be\u03b9\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03ad\u03c1\u03c7\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03c1\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b4\u03b5\u03b4\u03bf\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03b1, \u03b9\u03b1\u03c4\u03c1\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf\u03b9\u03c7\u03b5\u03af\u03b1, \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b7\u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03bb\u03cd\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b5\u03bb\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03ad\u03c3\u03c9 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03bc\u03bf\u03b9\u03ce\u03c3\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd \u03c3\u03b5 \u03b7\u03bb\u03b5\u03ba\u03c4\u03c1\u03bf\u03bd\u03b9\u03ba\u03bf\u03cd\u03c2 \u03c5\u03c0\u03bf\u03bb\u03bf\u03b3\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03ad\u03c2.<\/p>\n<p>\u03a4\u03b1 \u0395\u039c \u03b5\u03c6\u03b1\u03c1\u03bc\u03cc\u03b6\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b5\u03b9\u03c3\u03c0\u03c1\u03b1\u03c7\u03b8\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03c0\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bb\u03b7\u03c1\u03bf\u03c6\u03bf\u03c1\u03af\u03b5\u03c2 \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b5\u03be\u03ad\u03bb\u03b9\u03be\u03b7 \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03b4\u03b7\u03bc\u03af\u03b1\u03c2, \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03ad\u03bb\u03b5\u03b3\u03c7\u03cc \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c3\u03c0\u03ac\u03b8\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1 \u03b5\u03bb\u03ad\u03b3\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03ac\u03b4\u03bf\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03bd\u03cc\u03c2 \u03b9\u03bf\u03cd.<\/p>\n<p>\u03a3\u03c5\u03bd\u03ae\u03b8\u03c9\u03c2, \u03c7\u03c1\u03b7\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bf\u03b9 \u03c3\u03c5\u03bc\u03b2\u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03bf\u03af \u03bc\u03b5 <strong>S<\/strong> <em>(<\/em><strong>S<\/strong>usceptible<em>)<\/em> \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03ba\u03b1\u03c4\u03b7\u03b3\u03bf\u03c1\u03af\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03b1\u03c4\u03cc\u03bc\u03c9\u03bd \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b5\u03c5\u03ac\u03bb\u03c9\u03c4\u03b1, <strong>I<\/strong> <em>(<\/em><strong>I<\/strong>nfectious) \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03ba\u03b1\u03c4\u03b7\u03b3\u03bf\u03c1\u03af\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03c9\u03bd \u03b1\u03c4\u03cc\u03bc\u03c9\u03bd (\u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03ad\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c3\u03b2\u03bb\u03b7\u03b8\u03b5\u03af \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03b9\u03cc \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c1\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03b4\u03ce\u03c3\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd), <strong>R<\/strong> (recovery) \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03ba\u03b1\u03c4\u03b7\u03b3\u03bf\u03c1\u03af\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03b1\u03c4\u03cc\u03bc\u03c9\u03bd \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03ad\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03bc\u03b5\u03bd \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03bd\u03b8\u03b5\u03af \u03b1\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03b4\u03b5\u03bd \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03b4\u03af\u03b4\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03b9\u03cc (\u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ac\u03bd\u03bf\u03c3\u03b1 \u03ae \u03ad\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03b1\u03c0\u03bf\u03ba\u03c4\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9 \u03b1\u03bd\u03bf\u03c3\u03af\u03b1, \u03ad\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03bc\u03c0\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c3\u03b5 \u03ba\u03b1\u03c1\u03b1\u03bd\u03c4\u03af\u03bd\u03b1, \u03ae \u03ad\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c0\u03b5\u03b8\u03ac\u03bd\u03b5\u03b9) \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 <strong>\u0395<\/strong> \u03c4\u03b1 \u03ac\u03c4\u03bf\u03bc\u03b1 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03ad\u03c7\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03b9\u03cc \u03c3\u03b5 \u03c6\u03ac\u03c3\u03b7 \u03b5\u03c0\u03ce\u03b1\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 (incubation).<\/p>\n<p>\u03a4\u03ad\u03c4\u03bf\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b1 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c4\u03b1 SIS, SIR, SIRS, SSIR \u03ba.\u03bb\u03c0. \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd <strong>\u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b4\u03bf\u03c7\u03ae<\/strong> \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03b3\u03c1\u03b1\u03bc\u03bc\u03ac\u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b5\u03c1\u03bc\u03b7\u03bd\u03b5\u03cd\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd <strong>\u03c0\u03bf\u03c1\u03b5\u03af\u03b1 \u03b5\u03be\u03ad\u03bb\u03b9\u03be\u03b7\u03c2<\/strong> \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03be\u03ac\u03c0\u03bb\u03c9\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03bd\u03cc\u03c2 \u03b9\u03bf\u03cd. \u03a0.\u03c7 \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03bf \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf <strong>SIR<\/strong> (Kermack \u2013 McKendrick) \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03c7\u03b1\u03c1\u03b1\u03ba\u03c4\u03b7\u03c1\u03b9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf \u03c3\u03c4\u03bf \u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03af\u03bf \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03c6\u03b5\u03c1\u03cc\u03bc\u03b1\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c0\u03b9\u03bf \u03ba\u03ac\u03c4\u03c9, \u03b7 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03b4\u03bf\u03c7\u03ae SIR \u03c3\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03af\u03bd\u03b5\u03b9:<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Sir.jpg\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"aligncenter wp-image-12472 size-full\" src=\"http:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Sir.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"679\" height=\"58\" srcset=\"https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Sir.jpg 679w, https:\/\/thalesandfriends.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2020\/03\/Sir-300x26.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 679px) 100vw, 679px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p><em>(<u>\u039b\u03af\u03b3\u03b1 \u03bc\u03b1\u03b8\u03b7\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03bc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c1\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03bd\u03b1 \u03c0\u03b1\u03c1\u03b1\u03ba\u03ac\u03bc\u03c8\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03cc\u03c3\u03bf\u03b9 \u03b4\u03b5\u03bd \u03b5\u03bd\u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c6\u03ad\u03c1\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9<\/u>: \u0395\u03c0\u03b5\u03b9\u03b4\u03ae \u03c4\u03b1 <\/em><em>S<\/em><em>, \u0399, <\/em><em>R<\/em><em> \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c3\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b5\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b5\u03be\u03b1\u03c1\u03c4\u03ce\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03c7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03bf, \u03b5\u03ba\u03c6\u03c1\u03ac\u03b6\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c9\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c5\u03bd\u03b1\u03c1\u03c4\u03ae\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5 <\/em><em>t<\/em><em>, \u03b4\u03b7\u03bb. <\/em><em>S (t), I (t), R (t).<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u039f\u03b9 \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c6\u03bf\u03c1\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03b5\u03be\u03b9\u03c3\u03ce\u03c3\u03b5\u03b9\u03c2 \u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03b3\u03c1\u03ac\u03c6\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03c4\u03bf \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9: <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>dS\/dt = &#8211; <\/em><em>\u03b2<\/em><em> S I\/<\/em><em>\u039d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>dI\/dt = <\/em><em>\u03b2<\/em><em> S I\/<\/em><em>\u039d<\/em><em> \u2013 <\/em><em>\u03b3<\/em><em> I <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>dR<\/em><em>\/<\/em><em>dt<\/em><em> = \u03b3 <\/em><em>I<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u03bc\u03b5 \u03b2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b3 \u03b8\u03b5\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03bf\u03cd\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c4\u03b1\u03b8\u03b5\u03c1\u03bf\u03cd\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c1\u03b9\u03b8\u03bc\u03bf\u03cd\u03c2, \u03cc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b2 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bf \u03bc\u03ad\u03c3\u03bf\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c1\u03b9\u03b8\u03bc\u03cc\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b1\u03c6\u03ce\u03bd \u03b1\u03bd\u03ac \u03ac\u03c4\u03bf\u03bc\u03bf \u03c3\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03ac\u03b4\u03b1 \u03c7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5 (\u03c0.\u03c7. \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03ad\u03c1\u03b1), \u03c0\u03bf\u03bb\u03bb\u03b1\u03c0\u03bb\u03b1\u03c3\u03b9\u03b1\u03c3\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03bf\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c0\u03af \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03c0\u03b9\u03b8\u03b1\u03bd\u03cc\u03c4\u03b7\u03c4\u03b1 \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03ac\u03b4\u03bf\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b9\u03bf\u03cd \u03c3\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b1\u03c6\u03ae \u03bc\u03b5\u03c4\u03b1\u03be\u03cd \u03b5\u03bd\u03cc\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c5\u03ac\u03bb\u03c9\u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b5\u03bd\u03cc\u03c2 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5 \u03b1\u03c4\u03cc\u03bc\u03bf\u03c5. \u0395\u03c0\u03af\u03c3\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b3 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bf \u03bb\u03cc\u03b3\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03ac\u03bd\u03bf\u03c3\u03c9\u03bd \u03c0\u03bb\u03ad\u03bf\u03bd \u03ae \u03c0\u03b5\u03b8\u03b1\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03c9\u03bd (\u03b8\u03b5\u03c9\u03c1\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b1\u03ba\u03ac\u03b2\u03c1\u03b9\u03b1 \u03ac\u03bd\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03b9!) \u03c3\u03b5 \u03bc\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03ad\u03c1\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03bf\u03bb\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03b1\u03c1\u03b9\u03b8\u03bc\u03cc \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03c9\u03bd \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03af\u03b4\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03ad\u03c1\u03b1.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0391\u03bd \u03b7 \u03b4\u03b9\u03ac\u03c1\u03ba\u03b5\u03b9\u03b1 \u03c4\u03b7\u03c2 \u03bb\u03bf\u03af\u03bc\u03c9\u03be\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 <\/em><em>D<\/em><em>, \u03c4\u03cc\u03c4\u03b5 \u03b3 = 1\/<\/em><em>D<\/em><em>, \u03b1\u03c6\u03bf\u03cd \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03ac\u03c4\u03bf\u03bc\u03bf \u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03ba\u03ac\u03bc\u03c0\u03c4\u03b5\u03b9 \u03c3\u03b5 <\/em><em>D<\/em><em> \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03ac\u03b4\u03b5\u03c2 \u03c7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03bf\u03c5.<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0391\u03ba\u03cc\u03bc\u03b7<\/em> <em>S(t) + I(t) + R(t) = N <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u03cc\u03c0\u03bf\u03c5 \u039d \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bf \u00a0\u03b1\u03c1\u03b9\u03b8\u03bc\u03cc\u03c2 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c0\u03bb\u03b7\u03b8\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03bf\u03cd. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0391\u03c1\u03c7\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 \u03c3\u03c5\u03bd\u03b8\u03ae\u03ba\u03b5\u03c2: \u0393\u03b9\u03b1 <\/em><em>t<\/em><em> = 0 \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 <\/em><em>R<\/em><em> = 0 (\u03b4\u03b7\u03bb\u03b1\u03b4\u03ae \u03c3\u03b5 \u03c7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03bf 0, \u0386\u03bd\u03bf\u03c3\u03bf\u03b9 (<\/em><em>R<\/em><em>) = 0 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 <\/em><em>S<\/em><em>(0) + <\/em><em>I<\/em><em>(0) = <\/em><em>N<\/em><em> (\u03b4\u03b7\u03bb\u03b1\u03b4\u03ae \u03c3\u03b5 \u03c7\u03c1\u03cc\u03bd\u03bf 0 \u03c4\u03bf \u03ac\u03b8\u03c1\u03bf\u03b9\u03c3\u03bc\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u0395\u03c5\u03ac\u03bb\u03c9\u03c4\u03c9\u03bd (<\/em><em>S<\/em><em>) \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u039c\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03ad\u03bd\u03c9\u03bd (\u0399) \u03b9\u03c3\u03bf\u03cd\u03c4\u03b1\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03bf\u03bd \u03b1\u03c1\u03c7\u03b9\u03ba\u03cc \u03c0\u03bb\u03b7\u03b8\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03cc. <\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u0395\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03b5\u03c1\u03b9\u03c4\u03c4\u03cc \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03c6\u03ad\u03c1\u03c9 \u03c4\u03b7 \u03bb\u03cd\u03c3\u03b7 \u03c4\u03bf\u03c5 \u03c3\u03c5\u03c3\u03c4\u03ae\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03bf\u03c2 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03b4\u03b9\u03b1\u03c6\u03bf\u03c1\u03b9\u03ba\u03ce\u03bd \u03b5\u03be\u03b9\u03c3\u03ce\u03c3\u03b5\u03c9\u03bd-\u03c5\u03c0\u03ac\u03c1\u03c7\u03b5\u03b9 \u03ac\u03bb\u03bb\u03c9\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5 \u03c3\u03b5 \u03c0\u03bf\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac <\/em><em>sites<\/em><em>-. \u0388\u03ba\u03b1\u03bd\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03bb\u03ce\u03c2 \u03b1\u03c5\u03c4\u03ae \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b1\u03bd\u03b1\u03c6\u03bf\u03c1\u03ac \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b4\u03ce\u03c3\u03c9 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03b5\u03c5\u03ba\u03b1\u03b9\u03c1\u03af\u03b1 \u03bd\u03b1 \u03b5\u03be\u03bf\u03b9\u03ba\u03b5\u03b9\u03c9\u03b8\u03bf\u03cd\u03bd \u03ba\u03ac\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03bf\u03b9 \u03bc\u03b5 \u03c4\u03b7\u03bd \u03bf\u03c1\u03bf\u03bb\u03bf\u03b3\u03af\u03b1 \u03c4\u03c9\u03bd \u03b7\u03bc\u03b5\u03c1\u03ce\u03bd.)<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u03a4\u03bf \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf SIR \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03ad\u03bd\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03c4\u03b1 \u03b1\u03c0\u03bb\u03bf\u03cd\u03c3\u03c4\u03b5\u03c1\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b1 \u03b5\u03c1\u03bc\u03b7\u03bd\u03b5\u03af\u03b1\u03c2 \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03c1\u03cc\u03b2\u03bb\u03b5\u03c8\u03b7\u03c2 \u03b5\u03c0\u03b9\u03b4\u03b7\u03bc\u03b9\u03ce\u03bd \u03ba\u03b1\u03b9 \u03c0\u03bf\u03bb\u03bb\u03ac \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03b1 \u03c0\u03c1\u03bf\u03ba\u03cd\u03c0\u03c4\u03bf\u03c5\u03bd \u03b1\u03c0\u03cc \u03b1\u03c5\u03c4\u03ae \u03c4\u03b7 \u03b2\u03b1\u03c3\u03b9\u03ba\u03ae \u03bc\u03bf\u03c1\u03c6\u03ae. \u0391\u03c5\u03c4\u03cc \u03c4\u03bf \u03bc\u03bf\u03bd\u03c4\u03ad\u03bb\u03bf \u03b5\u03af\u03bd\u03b1\u03b9 \u03b9\u03ba\u03b1\u03bd\u03bf\u03c0\u03bf\u03b9\u03b7\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ac \u03b5\u03c6\u03b1\u03c1\u03bc\u03cc\u03c3\u03b9\u03bc\u03bf \u03b3\u03b9\u03b1 \u03bc\u03bf\u03bb\u03c5\u03c3\u03bc\u03b1\u03c4\u03b9\u03ba\u03ad\u03c2 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